I have seen a lot of bull and bear markets in my 50 years in the financial services industry and in financial journalism. So I can claim that I have an awful lot of experience and that helps me to forecast with some accuracy what markets are likely to do.
I worked as the minerals economist for Merrill Lynch Europe - London for 23 years (from January 1975 until February 1998). Then in February 1988 all the metals and commodities trading and research divisions were closed down in the very expensive aftermath of the Sumitomo affair.
My duties at Merrill consisted of doing daily and monthly base metal reports and advising clients on price trends and hedging strategies.
I also made trading recommendation to clients and account executives and to the trading desks in London, New York, and Hong Kong.
Other duties included speeches and presentations to clients and at trade functions (such as American Metal Markets and Metal Bulletin conferences) and visiting clients and prospects throughout the United States, Canada, Asia, Australia, and Europe.
I also advised the investment bank from time to time on individual mining companies and possible merger and acquisition possibilities as well as keeping them informed about overall price trends in the base and precious metals.
After I left Merrill Lynch I went to work for Prudential Bache in London (now Jefferies) from March 1998 to April 2002. My duties there were the same as at Merrill Lynch.
Then I had a minor heart attack and, thanks to my wife's cajoling, I decided to retire from the markets and we went to Cornwall at the very tip of England. I was in Cornwall from May 2002 until September 2008. I became bored to death and, after I got my health back after three years of coastal walks and lots of sea air, returned to London.
This is when I started my weekly and Wednesday reports which you can now read on the Logic Advisors website. I welcome your queries and questions and hope that you will sign up for the service. My email is: email@example.com
Employment history before Merrill Lynch
Rudolf Wolff - London. Helped to write and edit the first edition of Wolff's Guide to the LME. June 1974 - December 1974. The book was (and still is) essentially a guide to hedging and how the LME works and how metals are priced.
Rand Daily Mail - Johannesburg. Mining Editor. January 1974 - May 1974. Wrote about gold mining shares and the quarterly results and about the base and precious metals markets in general. This was the only occasion in my life where my employers broke virtually every clause in my contract! It was a financial disaster. Fortunately, the Rudolf Wolff job was offered to me and I was able to escape back to the UK.
The Daily Telegraph - London. Mining correspondent. January 1965 - December 1973. My duties consisted of writing about mining shares (results and prospects including forecasts of future earnings, and whether they appeared over or under valued). I also wrote a weekly investment column on mining shares which had a wide following in the City of London. As part of my job I travelled to many mining centres and reported on developments in those centres.
The Financial Times - London. June 1963 - December 1964. Worked in the syndication department which largely involved rewriting stories and reports that had appeared in the paper for overseas distribution to other papers who subscribed to this Financial Times service.
Reuters Financial Services - London. October 1958 - May 1963. Worked as a reporter and sub-editor on the commodities and financial news desks. Wrote and edited a weekly report on Comecon's trade with the West.
Date of birth - 30.10.35 Los Angeles, California, USA My father was English and my mother Scottish so I was born a British subject at birth. I travel on a British passport. (I can also claim U.S. nationality as well as I was born there and spent the first 20 odd years of my life there.)
Married 28.10.61. We will celebrate our 50th wedding anniversary in October 2011. We have two grown up daughters.
Primary, secondary, and high school education at Redlands, California from 1945 - 1954. My father lived and worked there as a writer and lecturer. He was widowed when I was five years old.
University of California at Los Angeles - September 1954 - August 1956. Read Economics and Political Science. Received an Associate of Arts degree.
Royal School of Mines (part of Imperial College, London) - minerals economics course September 1966 - August 1968. (I attended the courses on a part time basis by special permission of the Dean and through the good offices of Michael West, the editor at the time of the Mining Journal, London and Kenneth Fleet, the City editor at the time of The Daily Telegraph. I wanted to ensure that I had a good academic backing to my job as mining correspondent on The Daily Telegraph. And this I achieved.)
National Service in 1st Battalion Royal Fusiliers - September 1956 - September 1958. Stationed at Connaught Barracks, Dover. Rank: Corporal.